Forex Investment

Jan. Retail Sales Better Than Expected Retailers Report Better-Than-Expected Sales Results in January By ANNE D’INNOCENZIO AP Business Writer The Associated Press

NEW YORK - The nation’s retailers rebounded in January from their disappointing holiday season as shoppers redeemed gift cards to buy winter and spring merchandise. The arrival of frigid temperatures in much of the country helped clear out what was left of cold weather items.

As retailers reported their better-than-expected sales Thursday, winners included Limited Brands Inc., Nordstrom Inc., and Federated Department Stores Inc. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. beat Wall Street estimates, though its monthly gain was modest. Even Gap Inc., which has long struggled with disappointing sales, beat analysts’ expectations, though its sales languished at its namesake chain.

Among the losers were Abercrombie & Fitch Co., AnnTaylor Stores Corp. and Chico’s FAS Inc.

“Across the board, the numbers are decent,” said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass. The one area of weakness was women’s apparel stores, which he believes were hurt by the weather. Winter weather came too late, he said.

Thomson Financial’s sales tally of 55 retailers rose 3.9 percent in January, beating the 3.1 percent estimate. The tally is based on same-store sales, or sales at stores opened at least a year, which are the industry standard for measuring a retailer’s health.

The solid performance in January was soothing as it follows a largely disappointing November-December period, which averaged a modest 2.9 percent same-store sales gain, according to Thomson Financial. The sales reports also provided some encouraging news about fourth-quarter earnings, as many stores at least backed their profit forecasts. The retail fiscal year ends in late January, so companies will be reporting their fourth-quarter results later this month.

While January is the least important month of the retail calendar, its significance has grown over the past five years because of the impact of gift cards. Retailers don’t include gift card sales in their monthly tallies until the cards are redeemed, and the bulk of cards given for the holidays are used in January.

The delayed arrival of winter weather had a mixed impact on sales. It helped stores that sell snow blowers and shovels or that still had plenty of heavy boots and coats to clear out, but hurt those that were heavily stocked with spring merchandise.

Merchants also benefited from a steady job market, which helped send consumer confidence slightly higher last month. The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number of newly laid off workers filing for unemployment benefits edged up last week but the levels still reflected a healthy labor market. The Labor Department reported that 311,000 newly jobless workers applied for benefits last week, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week.

Still, stores do face challenges ahead as the housing market remains soft and consumers face the possibility that job growth may be sluggish. Last week, the government reported that employers slowed hiring in January, pushing the unemployment rate to a four-month high. What’s more alarming is that shoppers may be on the verge of tapping out a government report issued last week said Americans’ personal saving rate dipped into negative territory in 2006 as consumers deplete their saving or increase their borrowing to finance their spending.

“I believe that consumers are still feeling confident about buying, but I think it is a measured confidence,” said Janet Hoffman, managing partner of the North American retail division of Accenture. “If people are not saving, they are not going to be ready to buy that next house. There is so much economic stimulation when they buy that next house,” she said.

Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, had a modest 2.2 percent rise in same-store sales, beating the 1.8 percent estimate from Wall Street analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. The company said lower temperatures throughout the United States drove sales of cold weather related items.

Rival Target Corp. had a 5.1 percent gain in same-store sales, above the 4.6 percent estimate.

Costco Wholesale Corp. reported a same-store sales gain of 2 percent, below the 3 percent forecast. Costco blamed the shortfall on a quirk in the calendar: There was one less day during the five-week reporting period due to the timing of New Year’s. The shift negatively affected same-store sales by about 3 percent, according to Costco.

Federated had an 8.6 percent gain in same-store sales, well above the 4.6 percent analysts predicted. The same-store results include only the Macy’s and Bloomingdale’s stores that existed before September, when the company transformed most of the former May Department Stores Co. branches to Macy’s units.

J.C. Penney Co. had a 3.6 percent gain in same-store sales at its department store business, a bit above the 3.5 percent estimate.

Saks Inc. reported a 11.4 percent gain in same-store sales, beating the 7.0 percent estimate. Nordstrom had an 11.1 percent gain in same-store sales, beating the 5.9 percent estimate.

Gap, whose CEO resigned last month amid a string of disappointing quarters, announced that same-store sales were unchanged from the year ago, much better than the Wall Street estimate for a 7.7 percent drop. The business was helped by strong sales at its Banana Republic stores, and the retailer boosted its earnings outlook.

Meanwhile, the retailer continued to shake up its management, announcing Thursday that the head designer for Gap North America was leaving.

Limited had an 11 percent same-store sales gain, beating the 7.8 percent forecast.

AnnTaylor suffered a 10.2 percent same-store sales decline, worse than the 5.4 percent expected.

Chico’s said same-store sales fell 3.5 percent, worse than the 1.5 percent analysts expected.

Teen retailer Abercrombie & Fitch Co. had a 6 percent same-store sales decline; analysts projected a 1.9 percent decrease.

On Wednesday, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. reported a 17 percent gain in same-store sales, above the 10.9 percent estimate from analysts.

LONDON - Thousands of British Airways employees have voted to strike following disputes centering on sick pay and pensions, union officials said Monday.

In one of the largest majorities seen in such a dispute, some 96 percent of cabin crews voting on the action opted for a strike, the Transport and General Workers Union said. No strike deadline was set.

Cabin crew workers had claimed the airline pressured them to come to work even if they felt sick, the union said. A separate dispute focused on pension plans.

“BA cabin crew have voted to say the airline has gone too far,” said Jack Dromey, the union’s deputy-general secretary. “BA must rebuild the trust of its cabin crew by negotiating rather than imposing change and by listening to its staff rather than riding roughshod over their concerns.”

British Airways officials issued a statement to decry what they described as an unnecessary strike.

“We have not been seeking to achieve new ways of working by imposition, but by negotiation as in many other areas of our business,” the airline’s statement said. “The leaders of the (union’s) cabin crew branch have created a worrying time for our customers and our staff.”

Further talks are set for later this week, both sides said.

A strike affecting Britain’s biggest airline could cause disruptions at airports, which were rocked last year by hundreds of canceled flights after authorities uncovered a plot to bomb trans-Atlantic jet planes. Revelation of the plot led to enhanced security measures that led to widespread delays. 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

SEOUL (XFN-ASIA) - Industrial output expanded 7.4 pct year-on-year in January backed by stronger production of semiconductor chips, machinery and chemical products, the National Statistical Office said.

The indicator accelerated from a 3.0 pct rise a month earlier when output suffered due to fewer working days in the month and the base effect from strong output a year earlier.

But the output figure was at the lower end of the market consensus of 7.4-7.94 pct.

Working day-adjusted industrial output grew at a modest rate of 1.4 pct year-on-year in January, compared to 7.6 pct growth in the month earlier term. The NSO said Lunar New Year holidays, which had fallen in January last year, seemed to boost the unadjusted output figure last month.

Month-on-month, output expanded 1.3 pct in January after a 2.8 pct contraction in the preceding month, backed by firmer output of handsets, chips and machinery.

“After hitting a peak in November, the economy has been showing signs of moderating a bit…But we have to wait and see whether the trend will set in as there is the possibility of a rebound as well,” said Choi In-Keun, head of the NSO’s economic statistics bureau.

Production at chipmakers expanded 11.4 pct year-on-year in January but it slowed from 13.2 pct growth in December. Month-on-month, chip output grew 1.4 pct last month following December’s contraction of 7.1 pct, the NSO said.

Production of machinery grew 17.4 pct year-on-year last month against the previous month’s 3.0 pct rise.

Private consumption, as measured by wholesale and retail sales of consumer goods, expanded 3.1 pct year-on-year in January, against a 3.3 pct rise booked in December.

Month-on-month, consumption grew 0.8 pct last month on stronger demand for communication devices, computers and kitchen utensils although the pace eased slightly from 0.9 pct in the preceding month.

Gross shipments grew 7.2 pct year-on-year in January, faster than the 3.0 pct rise a month earlier, with export shipment growth rising to 7.5 pct from 4.8 pct and domestic shipment growth accelerating to 7.0 pct from 1.8 pct.

Inventory grew 10.7 pct year-on-year in January due to higher inventory levels of chips and cars, faster than 6.2 pct a month earlier and the highest since growth of 11.1 pct in April 2005.

Corporate facility investment rose 16 pct year-on-year on increased investment in computers, machinery and cars. The indicator came well above the previous month’s performance of 2.3 pct and was the strongest since last September’s 17.7 pct.

Factory-use rates rose to 81.3 pct from 80.5 pct in the previous month.

January new domestic construction orders expanded 9.7 pct year-on-year on the back of brisk orders from the public sector but eased sharply from December’s solid growth of 29.8 pct.

The January coincident index - a key indicator measuring current economic trends -fell by 0.2 percentage points from a month earlier after a 0.2 point decline in December.

The index of leading indicators, which measures future economic trends, dipped 0.1 points from a month earlier following a 0.1 point fall in December.

shinsaeromi@xinhuafinance.com

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On TheStreet.com TV’s Wall St. Confidential video Wednesday, Jim Cramer mused about some of his strategies for spotting a bottom a day after a market meltdown.

“There have been only two days in my 25-year trading career where you simply had to buy the next day, no matter what,” he told Gregg Greenberg, the host of Wall St. Confidential. “We have to remember what history tells us here.”

The first day was “Terrible Tuesday” during the crash of 1987, when the market was down 1,200 points. The second was in October 1997 during the “Asian contagion,” Cramer said.

In the first case, the market’s fall was because of a technical problem, a breakdown similar to the one the market had yesterday, Cramer said, and the second one was a recognition that Asia was not the U.S.

Players who wade into today’s tape should want to be in a bifurcated portfolio: hit the stocks with 4% yields and the stocks that are selling below 10 times earnings, Cramer said.

“One third of the market bottoms immediately,” he explained. “If there is an economic speed-up and this was a reaction to interest rates going higher and bonds going down, you would buy cyclicals.”

However, because this is a situation in which interest rates are going down and the economy is softening, another group that might have bottomed here is the Procter & Gamble (PG) contingent, Cramer said.

He believes Colgate (CL) , Clorox (CLX) , Campbell (CPB) , Kellogg (K) and Altria (MO) should all “work for now.”

The second bottoming should be in the financials, Cramer said, which is why he has been trying to have people set up positions in the “dividend defensive” financials, and secondly, the more aggressive financials with “good yield or good book.”

Editor’s note: Jim posted several videos about the market today. Check them out by clicking on the links below.

http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10341545.html

http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10341541.html

http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10341537.html

http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10341542.html

http://www.thestreet.com/video/cramermarketupdates/10341524.html

I figured I would mention this since the owner of Forex Reader emailed me and took the time to compile a list of the top 25 forex bloggers. I went through the list and personally only found 6 or 7 of them blogs that maintain up-to-date status. The rest were either abandoned or not really what I would classify a blog. Either way, take a look for yourself and disseminate what is useful to you.

http://www.forexreader.com/2007/02/top_25_forex_bl.html