Forex Investment

Watch today’s Markets Desk video.

Stocks tapered from morning highs through most of the day, adding only slightly to Wednesday’s strong performance.

Investors digested merger news, recovering Asian markets and mixed economic data before Friday’s heavy slate of economic reports.

The NYSE composite rose 0.2% after topping the 10,000 mark briefly intraday. The Nasdaq climbed 0.5%, with its finance, telecommunications and transportation indexes leading the upside.

The small-cap S&P 600 rose 0.5%. The midcap S&P 400 gained 0.6%. The Dow and S&P 500 closed essentially flat. Preliminary figures show NYSE volume rose 13%, Nasdaq volume finished 18% above Wednesday’s levels.

Gainers led losers by 4-to-3 on the NYSE, 3-to-2 on the Nasdaq. Leading stocks continued to make moves.

Apple () rose for a second day on huge volume, gaining 2.14 to 120.91. The jump followed an announcement that users of Apple TV would be able to stream content from YouTube.com, the video-Mecca owned by Google (). Apple stock is 25% above a 96.93 buy point on a 14-week cup-with-handle base.

Clothing retailer Guess () ticked up 1.21 to 44.21. The 3%, big-volume move broke the stock above the 43.42 buy point on a 14-week flat base.

Netgear () jumped 1.36 to 37.31. The increase, Netgear’s fourth straight, left shares 20% above a 31 buy point on a 13-week cup-with-handle base.

On the downside, specialty chemical maker Albermarle () slipped 1.16 to 40.64. The reversal ended three days of gains that had lifted shares near to their 50-day moving average. The stock has been consolidating since mid-April.

3 p.m. update: Stocks Trade Sideways In Late Dealings

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Stocks treaded the late-day waters.

Gold & silver miners and Internet networkers showed the best gains, home builders and discount retailers took the biggest hits.

Investors may be settling in to wait out a raft of upcoming economic data due out Friday, including the May jobs report and the ISM manufacturing index.

The NYSE composite was up 0.3%, the Nasdaq 0.4% at 2:47 p.m. ET. The S&P 500 held its 0.2% gain, with small-caps and midcaps leading the way. The Dow rose 0.1%. Volume remained higher.

Gainers led decliners 4-to-3 on the NYSE, 3-to-2 on the Nasdaq. Leading stocks continued to make moves.

Heico () made a third day of strong gains, popping 2.71 to 43.71. The 7% move, on more than seven times average volume, extended the stock’s May 21 breakout from a 12-week cup-with-handle base. Shares are now 13% above a 38.74 buy point.

J.Crew Group () spiked up 2.41 to 44.88 on double average volume. The move snapped the stock above the 43.15 buy point of a 26-week cup-with-handle base. Shares are now 3% above that buy point.

Pension Worldwide () gained 1.55 to 28.85 on nearly double average volume. The global securities processing services firm saw its stock fall out of an attempted breakout attempt in April. Thursday’s 6% move lifted shares to their 50-day moving average line for the first time in five weeks.

Shares of Force Protection (), a maker of armor for military and other vehicles, lost 1.12 to 29.15. The stock is now 17% above the 24.83 buy point from a cup-with-handle.

1 p.m. update: NYSE Stocks Surrender Early Gains; Nasdaq Holds Ground

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Stocks sputtered in midday trading after rushing higher early.

Better news on the jobs front and righted Asian markets failed to counteract a four-year low in Q1 GDP growth.

The NYSE composite slipped from its intraday high, but held to a 0.3% gain at 12:50 p.m. ET. The Nasdaq was up 0.5%, propped up by the exchange’s finance and transportation indexes, which rose 1.4% and 1.2% respectively.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, edging nearer to its intraday record set in March 2000. The Dow also added 0.2%, but remained below its intraday high. Volume was running higher across the board.

This morning, the Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index for May returned a strong 61.7 showing. It was the second time the volatile index hit that mark in three months, suggesting the region’s business investment was climbing back on track.

Leading stocks continued to stage solid moves.

Sun Hydraulics () jumped 1.99 to 42.94. The stock broke above a two-year-old high earlier this month and has been nailing new highs on above-average volume.

RTI International Metals () rose 2.55 to 88.35. The 3% increase left the stock level with its 50-day moving average for the first time in four weeks. The stock began consolidating in April. It is now 13% below its April 23 high.

China-based Internet search engine Baidu.com () rose 5.07 to 140.76. The stock has climbed for four straight days, despite Wednesday’s meltdown of Chinese markets. The 4% rise followed the breakout from a 14-week cup-with-handle base. Shares broke out May 14 on heavy volume. The stock is now 6% above the 132.90 buy point.

Discount retail chain Big Lots () reversed lower, losing 3.22 to 32.38. The 9% drop on more than double average volume negated Wednesday’s breakout from a seven-week flat base, leaving shares resting on their 50-day moving average.

11 a.m. update: Stocks Rise On Mixed Economic Data, Rebound In China’s Markets

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

A broad swath of stocks headed for higher ground on a combination of mixed economic news, merger and acquisition activity and a good day on Asia’s stock markets.

The NYSE composite was up 0.4% at 10:52 a.m. ET. The Nasdaq was up 0.5%, with its financial index once again registering the strongest gains. The S&P 500 built on Wednesday’s record close, adding 0.2%. The Dow also rose 0.2%.

NYSE volume was tracking 7% above Wednesday’s level. Nasdaq volume was up 19%.

Asian exchanges recovered powerfully from the day earlier’s losses. The Shanghai composite climbed 1.4% and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 added 1.6%. European stocks held firm, with London’s FTSE 100 notching a 0.5% gain.

The U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the first quarter, with Commerce Department data showing a 0.6% increase, below expectations.

That was good news for those hoping that slower growth could lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this year, bad news for those banking on U.S. economic expansion. The GDP data was offset by Labor Department figures showing unemployment claims declined for the sixth time in seven weeks. The decline was not as sharp as expected, however.

Financial sector buyouts crowded the headlines, with Wachovia () agreeing to buy regional brokerage A.G. Edwards () for $6.8 billion. The deal would create one of the largest U.S. retail brokerages, and suggests more consolidation to come in the brokerage business.

Minneapolis-based payroll/payment processor Ceridian Corp. agreed to a $5.3 billion buyout offer from Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and Florida-based insurer Fidelity National Financial ().

A number of leading stocks made powerful moves in early trading.

Precision Castparts () gapped up, gaining 3.55 to 119.81. Debt rating agency Standard & Poor’s said Wednesday it would include the maker of specialized aerospace parts in its S&P 500 index. The 3% move pushed Precision shares to new highs on rising volume. The stock is now 11% extended above the 107.76 buy point on a recent pullback to its 50-day moving average line.

Google () rose 5.14 to 503.74. The dominant Internet search engine provider, its $3.1 billion acquisition of online advertising company DoubleClick is under review by the Federal Trade Commission, but most expect the deal to be approved. The stock’s 1% move follows two days of heavy-volume gains that broke it out of a consolidation begun in January. Shares remain 2% below the highs notched in January.

China Petroleum & Chemical () gapped up, adding 6.30 to 109.69. China’s largest refiner, also known as Sinopec, broke out of an 18-week, cup-with-handle base early in May. It’s now 16% above the 94.88 buypoint.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a2kQklPosoyg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aKxtoUyDZwQk&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

CHANGE IN RATINGS Accenture (ACN) initiated at Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley initiates coverage of Accenture with an overweight rating and a $44 price target.

Chicago Merc (CME) upgraded at Prudential: CME was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral at Prudential. $570 price target. Estimates also raised, as volume growth has not slowed down as much as expected.

Diamond Offshore (DO) upgraded at Credit Suisse: Credit Suisse is upgrading DO to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation. Raises target price to $101 from $93.

Investors Financial (IFIN) downgraded at Prudential: IFIN was downgraded from Neutral to Underweight at Prudential. $38 price target. U.S. growth has slowed considerably, while expenses continue to rise.

Intuit (INTU) upgraded at JP Morgan: INTU was upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan. Expect the company to have a strong tax season, and post solid QuickBooks sales.

Juniper Networks (JNPR) downgraded at Thomas Weisel: Thomas Weisel downgrades Juniper Networks to market weight on increasingly balanced risk/reward equation.

Motorola (MOT) downgraded at Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley downgrades Motorola from overweight to equalweight and cuts 2007-08 eps estimates.

Nasdaq (NDAQ) downgraded at Morgan Stanley: Morgan Stanley downgrades Nasdaq Stock Market from overweight to equalweight and lowers its price target from $39 to $36.

Pfizer (PFE) downgraded at Bear: PFE was downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform at Bear Stearns. Lipitor volumes are decelerating, and there are few big products in the near-term pipeline.

Parexel (PRXL) upgraded at Goldman Sachs: Goldman is upgrading PRXL to Buy from Neutral based on valuation. Believe company can show further fundamental improvement in strong market for clinical services. Target price at $38.

Patni (PTI) upgraded at Goldman Sachs: Goldman is upgrading PTI to Neutral from Sell based on sustained secular demand and growth for offshore services, as well as increased estimates for 20% revenue growth in 2007 and 2008. Believe earnings downside is limited due to higher revenue growth rate. Price target raised to $18.40 from $15.16.

Robert Half (RHI) upgraded at UBS: RHI upgraded to Buy rating from Neutral at UBS. Price target jumps to $53 from $40. 2007 eps estimates rise to $2.00 from $1.92.

Ternium (TX) downgraded at UBS: TX Ternium downgraded to Neutral rating from Buy at UBS. Price target lowered to $26 from $30 on risk from Venezuela.

Texas Instruments (TXN) estimates cut at Goldman: Goldman is lowering its 2007 estimates on TXN to $1.45 from $1.70 after company reported weak Q4 numbers. Company noted broad-based softness, led by wireless (down 10% qoq) as well as weak bookings. Maintained Neutral rating and $26 target.

Texas Instruments (TXN) upgraded at Merrill: TXN was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Merrill Lynch. $33 price target. Business is finding a bottom, and the recent weakness creates a buying opportunity.

Texas Instruments (TXN) estimates cut at Prudential: Prudential is cutting its 2007 estimates on TXN by 27 cents to $1.86 a share due to low visbilit7 and weak book to bill.

Under Armour (UA) upgraded at Credit Suisse: Credit Suisse is upgrading UA to Outperform from Neutral. Believes company is emerging as one of the premier global athletic brands. Raises target price to $65 from $47.

Unisys (UIS) downgraded at Goldman Sachs: UIS downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman. See poor hardware growth prospects for 2007, evident in recent IBM results. 2008 earnings reduced to $0.20 from $0.38

Urban Outfitters (URBN) upgraded at FBR: FBR upgrades Urban Outfitters to outperform, as it believes business is moving in the right direction. STOCK COMMENTS / EPS CHANGES Allied Capital (ALD) numbers lowered at Jefferies: ALD numbers lowered at Jefferies. Price target drops to $28 from $30. 2007 eps estimates lowered to $1.34 from $1.67. Reiterates Hold rating.

American Express (AXP) estimates lowered at Goldman: Goldman is reducing its 2007 estimates on AXP by 2 cents to $3.39 based on slightly below-expectation Q4 earnings. Billed business growth was strong 16% yoy, and both consumer and corporate spending remained stable. Maintained Neutral rating and $64 target.

Compass Bancshares (CBSS) estimates cut at Credit Suisse: Credit Suisse is lowering its 2007 EPS estimates on CBSS by 10 cents to $3.75 following weaker than expected Q4 results. Maintained Neutral rating.

Coldwater Creek (CWTR) price target slashed at Goldman: Goldman is cutting its target on CWTR to $23 from $30 following management’s 40% lower earnings guidance for Q4. High inventories due to increased direct sourcing are increasing company’s risk profile. 2007 estimates lowered to $0.58 from $0.69. Maintained Neutral rating.

Expedia (EXPE) price target raised at Goldman: Target on EXPE upped to $20 from $18 at Goldman. Company announced finalized results of its cash tender offer, stating that it purchased 30 million shares at $22. Remain concerned over decelerating topline growth and margin contraction trends. Maintained Neutral rating.

MasterCard (MA) target raised at Prudential: Prudential is raising its target price on MA to $130 due to higher long-term growth rate projection. Maintained Overweight rating.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Mar 30 07 07:22 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Markets Still in Range ahead of US Data

Markets are basically still bounded in established range today. Reaction to mixed Japanese data released earlier today was muted as traders are probably holding their bets with Japanese Q1 Tankan survey in sight for Monday. Meanwhile, dollar traders are cautious ahead of today’s Feb PCE data on the current inflation outlook. However, more volatility could instead be triggered by Chicago PMI which would build up the sentiments towards next Monday’s ISM manufacturing index.

Consumer inflation in Japan dipped back to negative zone as CPI fell by -0.2% while core CPI fell by -0.1%. Comments from officials were mixed with Finance Minister Omi said he doubts the economy is still experiencing deflation. Meanwhile, Economic Fiscal Policy Minister Ota said the end to falling prices in “in sight”. Other Feb data include housing spending which rose 1.3%, industrial production which dropped -0.2%, unemployment rate which stayed at 4.0%.

Germany retail sales rebounded by rising 0.9% in Feb, after a sharp fall of -5.1% in Jan. Other data from European session include Gfk consumer confidence from UK, Eurozone HICP in Mar, unemployment rate in Feb and confidence data in Mar.

Some important economic indicators are scheduled to release in US session including Feb core PCE which is expected to accelerate further to 2.4% yoy. Moderation in inflation has bottomed at 2.2% last Nov but started to pick up again in Jan. Further acceleration will echo FOMC’s view that inflation risk remains on the upside and it’s still Fed’s predominant concern. Chicago PMI disappointed in Feb and dropped further to 47.9. A rebound is expected in Mar to bring this index to 49.2, but still kept in contractionary level. Canadian GDP in Jan and PPI in Feb will also be closely watched to see if it can bring USD/CAD out of recently established range for more downside movements. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3304; (P) 1.3327; (R1) 1.3354; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Outlook remains unchanged in EUR/USD. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, consolidation from 1.3410 is probably still in progress and should extend further, with risk on another fall to towards 1.3253 support. However, downside of this consolidation is still expected to be contained by 1.3200/02 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.3070 to 1.3410 at 1.3200, 38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3410 at 1.3202) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, firm break above 1.3410 cluster resistance (61.8% projection of 1.2483 to 1.3364 from 1.2865 at 1.3409) is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed for next upside target of 1.3668 (04 high). Otherwise, choppy consolidation could extend further.

In the bigger picture, with EUR/USD still trading comfortably within medium term rising channel (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978) medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. The rise from 1.2865 is treated as resumption this up trend. Sustained break of 1.3364/09 resistance zone will confirm this and bring further rise towards 1.3668 resistance (04 high). Focus will be on reversal signal when EUR/USD enter into resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822 as the whole up trend from 1.1639 could terminate there.

However, break of 1.3200/02 cluster support will warn that the whole rally from 1.2865 has completed and will shift focus back to 1.3070/73 clusters support (61.8% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3410 at 1.3073). Sustained break of 1.3070/73 clusters support will dampen the above view and indicate that the whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 might have completed earlier then we thought. Focus will be turned back to medium term rising channel (now at 1.2890).

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9600; (P) 1.9628; (R1) 1.9646; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Outlook in cable remains unchanged. With 4 hours MACD kept below signal line, consolidation from 1.9726 is likely still progress and more choppy consolidation would still be seen with risk of for a retest of 1.9570 support remains. However, downside is still expected to be contained well above 1.9395 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 1.9726 at 1.9390) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 1.9726 resistance will confirm recent rally from 1.9183 has resumed for 1.9913 high.

In the bigger picture, with bearish divergence conditions being displayed in weekly RSI and daily MACD a medium term top should be around the corner. The up trend from 1.7047 should make a top after reaching 2.0076/0106 cluster resistance zone (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067, 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9213 at 2.0076. And hence, focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches these levels.

On the downside, sustained break of 1.9215/17 cluster support will indicate that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed earlier then we thought and should the bring deeper correction to 1.8834 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2144; (P) 1.2164; (R1) 1.2195; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Outlook in USD/CHF remains unchanged. With 4 hours MACD staying above signal line, consolidation from 1.2029 is still in progress and further recovery cannot be ruled out. But still, upside is expected to be limited by 1.2228/30 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2354 to 1.2029 at 1.2230, 38.2% retracement of 1.2550 to 1.2029 at 1.2228) and bring decline resumption.

On the downside, a break below 1.2075 will turn intraday bias back to the downside and bring retest of 1.2029 cluster support (78.6% retracement of 1.1879 to 1.2571 at 1.2027) first. Firm break of 1.2029 will confirm recent decline has resumed for next downside target of 1.1879 support (06 low).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD are staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction nand price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Sustained break of 1.1878 will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 117.10; (P) 117.59; (R1) 118.54; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY’s choppy consolidation continues today. As discussed before, the path of such consolidation will likely be choppy and unpredictable. And with 116.38 support remains intact, risk for another rise remains, probably for a retest of 118.42 resistance. However, upside is still expected to be limited by 100% projection of 115.13 to 118.49 from 115.75 at 119.10 and bring another fall.

On the downside, break of 116.38 support will be the first signal that such consolidation has completed and should bring retest of 115.13 low. Break will confirm that fall from 122.17 has resumed for next downside target of 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02).

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD’s stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, decisive break of 119.48 fibo resistance will argue that the price actions from 122.17 is developing into large range consolidation instead. A retest of 122.17 high could be seen in such case. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 155.98; (P) 156.72; (R1) 158.09; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY’s rebound extended further but is still kept below 158.01 high. Short term outlook remains neutral at this point. A short term top is formed after rise from 150.75 failed to take out 157.61/73 cluster resistance (100% projection of 150.75 to 155.72 from 152.64 at 157.61, 78.6% retracement of 159.63 to 150.75 at 157.73) decisively and formed a top with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Hence, firm break above 158.01 again is needed to confirm short term bullishness has resumed for 159.63 high. Otherwise, risk of another fall remains.

Meanwhile on the downside, break of 155.34 low again (50% retracement of 152.64 to 158.01 at 155.33), which should also bring sustained trading below mentioned rising trend line, will indicate the the whole rise from 150.75 has already completed and deeper decline should then been seen to 152.64 support.

In the bigger picture, we’re treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up could have ended at 159.63 with a diagonal triangle already. Fall from 159.63 should represent the fourth wave correction and has already met it’s target of 38.2% retracement of 137.16 to 159.63 at 151.05) and lower channel line (143.60 to 159.63, 137.16, now at 151.32). Prior strong rebound from the channel line is so far consistent with this view. Hence, retest of 159.63 high should be seen and EUR/JPY should make a new high before finally forming a medium term top.

However, below 152.64 support again will dampen the above view and indicate that the rebound from 150.75 could probably be a correction to fall from 159.63 only. This will also put the channel support back into focus. Sustained break of the channel will indicate that a major medium term top already in place at 159.63 and that much deeper decline is indeed underway towards 147.71 support first.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=akfY4UqlEbng&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a7Uf43IIi9Do&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aCncMTsyfZXc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aRP5tiOA5iJY&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r866571893
Fri, 30 Mar 2007 04:12:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r866510573
Fri, 30 Mar 2007 03:00:00 GMT from Reuters

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r866471079
Fri, 30 Mar 2007 02:20:00 GMT from Daily Times

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r866462378
Fri, 30 Mar 2007 02:12:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r866457518
Fri, 30 Mar 2007 02:06:00 GMT from Yahoo! Canada

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD New Zealand GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 1.00% 0.30%
23:30 JPY Japan Household spending Feb 1.30% 0.60% 0.60%
23:30 JPY Japan National CPI Y/Y Feb -0.20% -0.10% 0.00%
23:30 JPY Japan Unemployment rate Feb 4.00% 4.00% 4.00%
23:50 JPY Japan Industrial production M/M Feb -0.20% -0.70% -1.70%
06:00 EUR Germany Retail sales M/M Feb 0.90% 0.90% -5.10%
08:30 GBP U.K. Gfk Consumer Confidence Mar -8.00% -8.00%
09:00 EUR Eurozone HICP Y/Y Mar 1.90% 1.80%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment rate Feb 7.30% 7.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Mar 109.7 109.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar -4 -5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Mar 5 5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Business Climate Mar 1.55 1.56
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Mar 20 20
12:30 USD U.S. Core PCE M/M Feb 0.20% 0.30%
12:30 USD U.S. Core PCE Y/Y Feb 2.40% 2.30%
12:30 USD U.S. PCE index Y/Y Feb 2.20% 2.00%
12:30 USD U.S. Personal income Mar 0.30% 1.00%
12:30 USD U.S. Personal spending Mar 0.30% 0.50%
12:30 CAD Canada GDP M/M Jan 0.20% 0.40%
12:30 CAD Canada PPI M/M Feb 0.70% -0.10%
12:30 USD Fed Plosser speaks
13:45 USD U.S. Chicago PMI Mar 49.2 47.9
14:00 USD U.S. Construction spending Feb -0.60% -0.80%
14:00 USD U. of Michigan survey Mar 88.5 91.3
16:00 USD Fed Bernanke speaks

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

MELBOURNE’S tenants have been warned that rents could rise as the city’s vacancy rates hit a 25-year low.

Figures released yesterday by the Real Estate Institute of Victoria show rental vacancy rates are about 1.2 per cent and have not risen above 1.7 per cent for the past year.

REIV chief executive Enzo Raimondo said: “The last time we saw 12 consecutive months with a vacancy rate around 1.5 per cent was 1981, ‘82 and ‘83 when the vacancy rate ranged between 1 and 1.3 per cent.”

He said the squeeze was being felt throughout the city, where most renters lived.

Vacancy rates were as low as 1 per cent in the inner city.

A market is regarded as being well balanced between supply and demand when the vacancy rate is about 3 per cent, a level last seen in Melbourne in early 2005. Since then much of the oversupply from the apartment development boom has been absorbed.

The situation is not as dire in middle ring suburbs, such as Burwood, where the vacancy rate is 1.4 per cent. But it has dropped to 1.2 per cent in the outer suburbs.

“We urgently need to find ways to encourage more investment in the housing market,” Mr Raimondo said.

“If this tight market continues the upward pressure on rents will be very strong.”

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows rental growth of 2.7 per cent in Melbourne last year, about the same pace as inflation, but well above the 1.2 per cent growth in 2005.

AAP