Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | May 22 07 07:33 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Could Euro Draw Support from ZEW?
Euro recovers mildly against dollar ahead of ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment. The German ZEW index bottomed at -28.5 Nov and has been recovering steadily since then. In May, it’s expected to rise further from 16.5 to 24.0. If comes in as expected, the reading will be the highest since last Jun. Meanwhile, the current situation index is also expected to rise further from 76.9 to 79.0. EUR/USD has been heading lower since making a high at 1.3681 in Apr despite relatively solid data and expectation of of June hike from ECB. Such pattern is not expected to change yet and hence, ZEW’s impact on the Euro could be muted unless we have a really strong number.
BoJ minutes for Apr meeting was released earlier today. Some members said that BoJ should be aware of how revisions to services price in April will affect CPI whole some said upward pressure on consumer prices will gradually rise as the economy expands. Business fixed investment is unlikely to decline significantly since corporate profits remained at a high level. However, Cabinet Office representative said that Japan has yet to overcome deflation and Finance Ministry official urged the BoJ to continue to support growth with monetary policy and that . Yen recovers mildly after the minutes but remains generally weak against dollar. Market’s opinion is divided on whether the next hike from BoJ will happen in Q3 or Q4 and nevertheless, the status of being a low yield currency won’t change any time soon.
Looking ahead, while no important economic data is scheduled to release in the US session, the bilateral Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) meetings between the US and China in Washington where officials will will review recent progress will be closely watched. Closing statements will be released tomorrow. Bernanke and Lacker are also scheduled to speak today. EUR/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3424; (P) 1.3478; (R1) 1.3519; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/USD is temporarily supported by 55 days EMA (now at 1.3435), making an intraday bottom at 1.3435 and turned into sideway consolidation. Nevertheless, the fall from 1.3609 is still in force as long as 1.3525 resistance holds and further decline is still expected to follow towards 100% projection of 1.3681 to 1.3461 from 1.3609 at 1.3389. On the upside, above 1.3525 will indicate lengthier consolidation might follow first. But still, it will take a strong rebound to above 1.3609 resistance to confirm that decline from 1.3681 has completed. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.
In the bigger picture, risk of 1.3681 being an important medium term top continues to increase. As discussed before, medium term up trend from 1.1639 is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend from 1.1639. With such interpretation, we’d expect risk of medium term reversal to increase significantly after EUR/USD met resistance zone between 1.3668 and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Hence, focus is now on reversal signals.
On the downside, break of the short term rising channel support is already a warning that the rise from 1.2865 has completed. Decisive break of 1.3364 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3681 at 1.3369) will confirm such case. More importantly, with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD and RSI, this will warn that the whole rally from 1.2483 has also completed, and, so is the whole up trend from 1.1639. Focus will then be back to medium term rising channel support (now at 1.3032).
GBP/USD
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9673; (P) 1.9715; (R1) 1.9753; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
Cable recovers mildly after reaching 1.9676 but outlook remains unchanged. Further decline is expected to follow as long as 1.9778 resistance holds and next downside target will be support zone of medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9551) and 1.9545 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.9183 to 2.0132 at 1.9546). Above 1.9778 will turn intraday outlook consolidative again. But still, break of 1.9874 is needed to indicate fall from 2.0132 has completed and bring strong rebound. Otherwise, short term risk remains on the downside.
In the bigger picture, risk of medium term reversal continues to increase. Firstly, the whole up trend from 1.7047 is not clearly impulsive. One interpretation is that rally from 1.7047 ended with three waves up to 1.9024. Subsequent correction ended at 1.8090. Rally from 1.8090 has already met mentioned target of 100% projection of 1.7047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067. Secondly, regardless of the larger trend, rise from 1.8090 can be interpreted as being a five wave sequence with first wave ended at 1.9142, second at 1.8517, third at 1.9913 and fourth at 1.9183. The channeling property supports this interpretation too. In such case, the fifth wave rally from 1.9183 has also met target of 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046 too. With bearish divergence condition remains in weekly RSI and daily MACD and key 2.0106 resistance (92 high) not decisively taken out, 2.0132 could be the important medium term top already.
On the downside, firm break of the medium term rising channel support (now at 1.9551) will indicate that the whole rally from 1.8090 has completed and add much credence to the case that an important medium term top is already formed and put focus to 1.9183 low. However, sustained trading above mentioned 2.0106 resistance will dampen the above interpretation and indicates that underlying bullishness in cable is much stronger then we thought.
USD/CHF
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2268; (P) 1.2298; (R1) 1.2334; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/CHF retreats mildly after reaching as high as 1.2331. Nevertheless, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as 1.2268 support holds, and further rally is expected to be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2350. Touching of 1.2268 will turn intraday outlook consolidative and bring pull back. But still, a break below 1.2124 support is needed to indicate rebound from 1.1993 has completed. Otherwise, another rise is still in favor after completing brief consolidation
In the biggest picture, firm break of 1.2282 cluster resistance (50% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.1993 at 1.2282) confirms that fall from 1.2571 has already completed at 1.1993 with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD and RSI. More importantly, this will increase the chance that USD/CHF is about to complete a medium term head and shoulder bottom formation (ls: 1.1919, h: 1.1878, rs: 1.1993). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement at 1.2350 and neckline resistance (1.2768 to 1.2571, now at 1.2367) will add more weight to this case. Stronger rally should then be seen to 1.2571 first and then 1.2768.
However, below 1.2124 support will indicate that rebound from 1.1993 has possible completed and save the case that recent choppy price actions could merely be part of a medium term triangle consolidation. And, down trend from 1.3283 should still resume after completing such consolidation in such case.
USD/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.10; (P) 121.35; (R1) 121.69; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
USD/JPY retreats mildly after reaching as high as 121.62. At this point, further rally is still in favor as long as 120.67 support holds and next upside target will be 122.17 high. However, as displayed in mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI, USD/JPY could be losing momentum and upside could be limited by this 122.17 key resistance. On the downside, touching of 120.67 again will indicate a short term top is possibly formed. But still, as long as 119.43 support holds, rally from 117.60 is still in force and another rise is expected to follow after brief consolidation.
In the bigger picture, previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole medium term rally from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. However, current strong rally from 115.13 suggest that price actions from 122.17 is just developing into sideway consolidation to rise from 108.99 only, instead of a sharp reversal. Hence, a retest of 122.17 high is expected to be seen. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best and there should still be another fall to retest 115.13 low before completing such consolidation.
On the downside, below 119.43 cluster support will indicate that the rise from 117.60 has finished and thus warn that the whole rebound from 115.13 has completed too. Focus will then be on 117.60 support and firm break will confirm such case. Deeper fall should then be seen to retest this low and probably further towards 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02).
EUR/JPY
Daily Pivots: (S1) 163.24; (P) 163.58; (R1) 163.93; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/
EUR/JPY dips lower today and is pressing 4 hours 55 EMA again (now at 163.23). Even though upside momentum remains convincing, EUR/JPY could still continue to crawl towards 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 as long as 162.64 support holds. Below 162.64 will suggest a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction towards short term rising trend line (now at 161.80).
Also, we’d like to maintain that risk of short term reversal remains high after previous break of the short term rising channel, with bearish divergence condition staying in 4 hours MACD and RSI and with daily MACD remains below signal line. Also, it’s possible that EUR/JPY is now in formation of a diagonal triangle to conclude the rally from 150.75. Hence, upside could be limited by 164.64 on loss of momentum and bring reversal. Break of 161.05 support will add much weight that rise from 150.75 has ended and deeper decline should then follow to 159.60 support first.
In the bigger picture, EUR/JPY’s previous break above medium term rising channel resistance suggests that strength of the rally from 150.75 is stronger than we originally thought. But still, interpretation of rally from 130.60 remains unchanged. First wave up ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up ended at 159.63 while fourth wave correction has ended at 150.75. Rise from there represents the final advance in this structure, targeting 61.8% projection of 137.16 to 159.63 from 150.75 at 164.64 and could terminate there.
On the downside, rise from 150.75 could still resume as long as 159.60 support holds. However, sustained trading below 159.60 will warn that prior break of medium term rising channel resistance was merely a throw-over. Also, this will give a serious warning signal that the whole rise rise from 130.60 has ended. EUR/JPY should set to test the medium channel support (now at 153.51) in such case.
Forex News Digest
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=azZR0DqxhxH8&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=axDc1LBm8msY&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=auUmVetg5PUI&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=axpON9NWC0W4&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aGOE2y9YyBdw&refer=currency
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a6l1Y7RoUDPA&refer=currency
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r943603199
Tue, 22 May 2007 00:48:00 GMT from Tehran Times
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r943590518
Tue, 22 May 2007 00:37:00 GMT from Seeking Alpha
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r943589985
Tue, 22 May 2007 00:36:00 GMT from Reuters
http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r943562991
Tue, 22 May 2007 00:12:00 GMT from Bloomberg
http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY BOJ meeting minutes Apr
07:15 CHF Swiss Combined PPI M/M Apr 0.9% 0.50% 0.30%
07:15 CHF Swiss Conbined PPI Y/Y Apr 2.6% 2.10% 2.40%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Trade balance (euro) Mar 3.0 B -1.7 B
09:00 EUR Germany ZEW index May 24.0 16.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW index May 14.5 10.7
10:00 EUR ECB’s Trichet speaks
13:15 USD Treasury Paulson Meets Chinese Officials
22:00 USD Fed’s Bernanke Speaks
23:30 USD Fed’s Lacker Speaks On Inflation
EUR Germany Import price index M/M Apr 0.5% 0.6%
EUR Germany Import price index Y/Y Apr 0.0% 0.90%
http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/