Forex Investment

OTTAWA: After rebuffing a toy makers effort to block publication, a Canadian consumer magazine is reporting that a popular line of childrens blocks sold throughout North America contains high lead levels.

In an article available on newsstands Friday, the magazine, Prot?gez-Vous, said that tests conducted by an independent laboratory had found that some samples of Mega Bloks Maxi plastic building bricks exceeded the lead limit of 600 parts per million set by the Canadian and American governments.

The Maxi series blocks are intended for young children and are made in Montreal by Mega Brands, which has extensive operations and distribution in the United States.

Health Canada, a government department, said that the preliminary results of recent tests on a random sample of the blocks showed “no quantifiable total lead content in the plastic.”

Mega Brands, which unsuccessfully sought a court injunction against the nonprofit magazine this past week, also vigorously denied that its products exceeded regulatory lead limits.

The dispute between the toy maker and the publisher centers not on the magazines reported findings, however, but on what constitutes an appropriate test for lead in some kinds of plastic toys.

David Clerk, the magazines publisher and the executive director of Les Editions Prot?gez-Vous, said that after consulting with Health Canada, the magazine hired an independent lab in Quebec to perform what he called a “total lead test” on 32 toys, including the Maxi blocks.

Essentially, the process involves scraping off a sample of the toys plastic, dissolving it in acid and then analyzing the solution.

When the results were returned by a lab, which Clerk said he could not identify because of a confidentiality agreement, a yellow Maxi block was the only toy that exceeded the 600-parts-per-million limit for lead set by Canada and the United States. Blue and red Maxi blocks showed no lead at all.

For confirmation, the magazine tested a second yellow block. It contained 1,180 parts per million of lead, nearly double the initial result.

Harold Chizick, a spokesman for Mega Brands, said that the magazine had used an inappropriate test for this kind of toy.

“We do not have a lead problem,” he said. “It is a misleading test to do on that part.”

When testing plastic toys that are not painted, Health Canada, the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission and Bureau Veritas, a testing lab under contract to Mega Brands, perform what the industry calls a migration test.

Chizick said such tests simulated how much lead would seep out of a toy if, for example, a child put it in his or her mouth.

Donald Mays, the senior director of product safety planning at Consumers Union, which publishes the magazine Consumer Reports, said migration tests typically analyzed a solution, often vinegar, that was left sitting on the toys surface for a period of time.

Both Clerk and Mays said that their publications believed that the migration test made too many assumptions about how toys would be used and how they would deteriorate over time.

“This is a loophole,” Clerk said. “Why is it that in 2007 we are still finding lead in toys?”

Lead is sometimes added to plastics to give them yellow or red color, Mays said. Alternative pigments sometimes are more costly and often have longer drying times.

Chizick did not directly respond when asked if his company would find high lead levels if it performed total lead tests on the yellow blocks, at one point calling the question “hypothetical.”

Consumers Union is pushing American regulators to switch to total lead tests for all products used by children, Mays said.

The Consumer Product Safety Commission did not respond to requests for comment. Joey Rathwell, a spokeswoman for Health Canada, said the department was reviewing its lead regulations.

(12-05) 01:14 PST SHANGHAI, China (AP) —

China’s auto exports soared in the first 10 months of the year, according to Commerce Ministry figures, but revenues from passenger car sales overseas are lagging due to falling prices, reports said Wednesday.

China exported a total of 413,500 complete finished vehicles ? including cars, buses and trucks ? in the first 10 months of the year, up 64 percent over the same period of 2006. Exported vehicle sales totaled $4.8 billion, an increase of 117 percent year-on-year, the Commerce Ministry said in a report on its Web site.

The bulk of Chinese auto exports go to developing nations such as Russia, Iran and Kazakhstan.

The volume of passenger car exports more than tripled, while their dollar value rose only 174 percent from the same period a year earlier to $948 million, the report said. It gave no export volume figure, only the rate of increase.

The report attributed the discrepancy between the increase in export volume and sales to “unhealthy competition” in the passenger car industry. Among other things, nearly 60 percent of the 1,242 companies exporting vehicles had overseas sales of less than 10 units apiece, it said.

Such trends spell trouble for China’s “brand image,” since small manufacturers cannot guarantee adequate after-sales service and parts distribution, the report noted.

The statistics were carried in various state media reports.

While China’s imports of passenger cars totaled only 99,500 units in January-September, the dollar value of those imports was $3.4 billion, reflecting the much higher value of the foreign autos sold in China, the official Xinhua News Agency said in a separate report on the Commerce Ministry data.

Although Chinese automakers are looking to expand in Europe and North America, so far they have mainly exported compact and economy passenger models, and mainly to developing countries.

According to state media reports, 70 percent of China’s auto exports in the first half of the year went to Asia and Europe, with the greatest number going to Russia, followed by Kazakhstan and Iran.

“Developing overseas markets is a realistic strategy for Chinese own-brand automakers” facing intensifying competitive pressures at home, Xinhua quoted Commerce Ministry official Zhang Ji as saying.

Chinese independent automaker Geely Group Co. announced plans this week for an assembly plant in an industrial zone in Subic Bay, the Philippines. Also recently, Chinese state-owned automaker FAW Group Corp. broke ground on a joint venture assembly plant in central Mexico with Mexican conglomerate Grupo Salinas.

China’s vehicle exports are still dominated by sales of commercial vehicles, buses and trucks, with passenger cars accounting for only $948 million, or about 20 percent of the total, the Xinhua report said.

The reports forecast that China’s vehicle exports could hit 600,000 in 2007 and rise to 800,000 in 2008.

The major stocks indexes tanked Tuesday as dismal data on the service sector did a number on equities.

According to preliminary data, the NYSE composite swooned 3.6%, the S&P 500 3.2%, Nasdaq 3.1% and Dow 2.1%. The major indexes all closed at session lows and have now erased the bulk of last week’s gains.

Volume climbed on both exchanges. Decliners battered advancers by more than a 4-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and nearly 4-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

Machinery, steel and building groups were among the biggest losers as recession worries mounted.

SunPower () tumbled 9.32, or 12%, to 66.68 in heated trade. The maker of solar power products revealed that its chief operating officer resigned as of Jan. 31. SunPower is now 59% off its 52-week high.

Teledyne Technologies () pierced its 200-day moving average, but managed to close above the line. It dropped 2.01 to 49.85 in heavy trading.

Natco Group () lost 0.93 to 42.87 on over double its average volume. That marked the oil and gas equipment firm’s sixth straight loss. The stock’s Accumulation/Distribution Rating is now at a worst-possible E.

March crude oil slid $1.61 to $88.41 a barrel, putting pressure on energy stocks.

On the upside, TransDigm Group () added 0.58 to 44.91 in heavy trading. The aircraft parts maker reports fiscal Q1 results Friday. Profit is slated to climb 22% to 56 cents a share.

3 p.m. EST update: Stocks Down Hard In Late Trading

By VINCENT MAO

Stocks were off the worst levels of the session, but still sharply lower in late trading Tuesday.

At 2:50 p.m. EST, the NYSE composite sank 2.9% and the S&P 500 2.4%. The Dow and Nasdaq were down 2.3%.

Volume was still tracking higher on both exchanges. Breadth was horrid, with decliners trouncing advancers by more than 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq and NYSE.

Many high-rated stocks that had been rebounding the past couple of weeks met up against sellers again.

Bucyrus International Inc. () dropped 5.47, or 6%, to 90.71 in heavy trading. The mining equipment maker pulled back from eight straight sessions of gains. Bucyrus reports on Feb. 15. Analysts see profit jumping 50% to 84 cents a share.

Nasdaq Stock Market () sliced its 50-day moving average. Shares slid 2.99, or 6%, to 42.68. The stock was on pace for its third straight decline.

Central European Distribution () gave up 2.54 to 53.95 in brisk trading. The liquor distributor came off session lows after finding support at its 50-day line.

On the upside, Salesforce.com () reversed earlier losses, gaining 1.65 to 53.42. The software firm recently found support at its 200-day moving average, but it’s been trading mostly sideways.

Sun Healthcare Group () regained its 50-day line, rising 0.83 to 17.32. The health care facilities operator reaffirmed its 2007 earnings outlook of 59 cents to 64 cents a share vs. estimates of 63 cents a share. Sales are expected at $1.58 billion, or shy of views of $1.6 billion. It guided full-year 2008 sales ahead of analysts’ consensus.

1 p.m. EST update: Stocks Extend Losses In Midday Trading

By VINCENT MAO

The major stock indexes hit new session lows midday Tuesday after downbeat comments from a regional Fed president.

At 12:47 p.m. EST, the NYSE composite slumped 2.6%, S&P 500 2.2%, Dow 2.1% and Nasdaq 1.9%.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said economic growth is slowing while inflation is rising. He expects growth to be sluggish through midyear before it picks up.

Volume was tracking higher on both exchanges.

Banking, mortgage lenders and other financial industry groups were among the day’s weakest.

AAR Corp. () gapped down, tumbling 2.67, or 9%, to 27.84. The aircraft parts maker already traded nearly double its average daily volume. After Monday’s close, the company said it will sell $175 million in convertible notes.

Siemens () gapped down, slumping 8.17, or 6%, to 125.60. The diversified manufacturing firm’s Siemens Medical Solutions USA unit received a warning from the Food and Drug Administration for alleged violations at its plant in Tennessee.

Sohu.com () gapped down and lost 2.27, or 5%, to 46.68 in brisk trading. The stock was down about 8% earlier. Late Monday, Sohu posted a 105% surge in Q4 earnings and a 90% jump in sales.

Church & Dwight () reversed early losses and regained its 50-day moving average. Shares ramped up 1.96 to 54.88 in fast trade. Before the open, the consumer products maker reported a 28% rise in Q4 profit, beating views. Sales rose 10%, also above views. It pegged full-year 2008 at $2.77 a share, a penny above estimates.

Fossil () regained its 200-day line. It climbed 1.75, or 5%, to 35.06. Piper Jaffray lifted the watchmaker to buy from neutral. The stock has logged two weeks of gains on strong volume, but it is recovering from a deep 37% correction.

Perrigo () pushed above its 50-day line, gaining 1.53, or 5%, to 33.57. Before the open, the generic drug maker said fiscal Q2 earnings grew 38% and sales 17%. Both were above views. The firm also guided full-year profit ahead of analysts’ estimates.

11:15 a.m. Update: Stocks Off Lows, But Still Deep In the Downside On Heavy Trading

By ALAN R. ELLIOTT

Only a few of the 197 industry groups tracked by IBD registered gains in a morning of busy trading. Economics news took the forefront, with the ISM non-manufacturing index showing a surprise contraction in the service economy last month.

The NYSE stumbled 2.3%, the Nasdaq 1.5% by 10:55 a.m. EST. Finance and telecom issues weighed heaviest on the Nasdaq. International stocks shook the NYSE: The NYSE International 100 plummeted 3.4%. The S&P 500 posted a 1.9% loss; the Dow slipped 1.8%. Trading volume swelled 22% on the NYSE, up 12% on the Nasdaq vs. Monday’s light action.

Oil slid $1.61 to $88.41 a barrel, mostly on the ISM report.

This morning’s decline in the January ISM index, to 44.6, fell far below expectations to its lowest level since October 2001. The reading shows a contracting economy, but the numbers are mildly suspect because it is the first release of the index since a data makeover intended to produce less volatile results. Readings below 50 indicate economic contraction.

Weak December retail sales data drove European stocks lower. Investors there are also positioning for either a 1/4- or 1/2-point rate cut, expected by the Bank of England Thursday. London’s FTSE 100 dumped 1.9%. France’s CAC-40 dropped 2.9%.

Markets in Asia traded mixed in a shortened week. The Shanghai composite sank 1.6%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.8%. The Seoul composite gained 0.4%. Most major markets will close for the week at midday Wednesday for the lunar New Year holiday.

Life insurers took some big-volume hits in morning trade, pulling hard on the S&P 500 and the NYSE.

Principal Financial Group () dropped 7.59 to 52.12 on monster volume. The gap-down loss forced the stock further below its key moving averages.

Lincoln National () also gapped down. The 3.83 loss to 51.47 put the insurance, annuities and retirement income provider’s shares into their third month below the 10-week moving average.

On the upside, Kansas City Southern () ticked up 1.85 to 38.67 after topping Q4 sales and earnings views. The rail operator is 36 weeks into a possible base. The Transport-Rail industry group is up 5% for the year.

10:15 a.m. Update: Indexes Stumble On Service Data

By VINCENT MAO

Stocks tumbled out of the gate Tuesday following this morning’s unexpected contraction in the service side of the economy.

At 9:53 a.m. EST, the NYSE composite tumbled 2.1% and the S&P 500 fell 1.7%. The Dow and Nasdaq each dropped 1.5%. All 30 Dow stocks are in negative territory.

Volume was tracking much higher on both exchanges.

VCA Antech () gapped down, plunging 7.02, or 18%, to 32.48. Late Monday, the operator of animal hospitals reported preliminary Q4 sales of of $284 million, missing current estimates of $290.5 million. For 2008, VCA expects profit of $1.55 to $1.60 a share vs. views of $1.63. Revenue is pegged between $1.3 billion and $1.33 billion, in line with views of $1.32 billion.

Online broker OptionsXpress Holdings () lost 0.96 to 25.77 in fast trade. Merriman Curhan Ford started coverage on the company with a sell rating, citing lost market share amid a competitive landscape.

DryShips () sank 3.40, or 5%, to 69.27 in brisk trade. The Greek shipping firm is still 47% off its all-time high set in October.

On the bright side, Apple () reversed early losses, gaining 0.81 to 132.42. It unveiled new models of its popular iPhone and iPod devices.

9:15 a.m. Update: Indexes Set To Tumble At Open

By VINCENT MAO

Stock futures signaled a weaker open Tuesday following a much weaker-than-expected slide in the services sector .

Nasdaq futures dropped 16 points vs. fair value, S&P 500 futures lost 13 points and Dow futures tumbled 102 points.

The ISM services index for January dived to 41.9 from 54.4 in December. That was well below forecasts of 53. Readings under 50 signal contraction.

The dollar rallied sharply against the euro after a report showed weakness in Europe’s service sector. It also gained against the yen.

Derivatives exchange operator CME Group () fell 2% in pre-market trading despite posting a Q4 profit gain of 29% to $3.75 a share, topping views of $3.62. Sales jumped 88% to $529.5 million, but that was below views of $535.3 million. CME also declared a first-quarter dividend of $1.15 cents per share.

Fellow exchange operator NYSE Euronext () slipped 2% the pre-market. Excluding items, the company’s fourth-quarter earnings climbed 47% to 66 cents a share, matching analysts’ estimates. Revenue surged 79% to $1.18 billion, boosted by last year’s acquisition of Euronext. Last month, NYSE Euronext agreed to buy the American Stock Exchange for $260 million in stock.

Goldman Sachs Group () gave up nearly 2% in the pre-open. Oppenheimer & Co. cut the investment bank to perform from outperform based on valuation. Oppenheimer also lowered its full-year earnings forecasts for 2008 and 2009.

Yahoo () lost 1% in pre-open trading. Banc of America Securities cut the Internet search firm to to neutral from buy, saying Yahoo would face stiff regulatory hurdles if it accepts Microsoft’s () $44.6 billion buyout offer. But BofA raised Yahoo’s price target to 31 from 26.

Yum Brands () gave up 2% in the pre-market. Late Monday, the operator of the Taco Bell, Pizza Hut and KFC chains reported a 5% rise in Q4 earnings, its weakest performance in eight quarters. Yum also raised its 2008 earnings outlook to $1.85 a share from $1.82, but that was below views of $1.87.

March crude oil slipped 81 cents to $89.21 a barrel. Crude supplies are expected to rise for a fourth straight week in Wednesday’s supply report.

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Apr 09 07 07:59 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report Markets Quietly in Tight Range, Waiting for US Open

Dollar remains firm today even though markets are still bounded in tight range due to holiday in Europe. Markets could remains quiet throughout the European session but volatility will likely increase as US session opens. Further dollar strength will likely be seen as the greenback continues to ride on Friday’s strength on stronger than expected employment report. No major economic data is scheduled to release today and hence, focus will be on tomorrow’s speeches from Fukui following BoJ’s rate decision.

BoJ meeting has already started today. Markets widely expected BoJ to kept rates unchanged at 0.5%, in particular after a negative CPI and soft Tankan survey. Focus will again be on Fukui’s press conference even though he’s expected to emphasize rate will remain low for some time again. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3349; (P) 1.3391; (R1) 1.3417; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD continues to trade with an undertone and edges mildly lower today. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as EUR/USD stays below 1.3379 minor resistance and further decline could be seen towards 1.3318 support. Above 1.3379 will turn intraday outlook consolidation and bring recovery.

As discussed before, as bearish divergence condition remains 4 hours MACD and RSI, chance of a short term reversal is still high. Price actions from 1.3253 could be developing into a terminal triangle and hence, another rise cannot be ruled out as long as the current pull back is contained above 1.3318 support. But upside should be limited unless sustained trading above 1.3440 high is seen. On the downside, break of 1.3318 will indicate that the whole rise from 1.2865 has possibly made a top at 1.3440 already and encourage further decline towards 1.3253 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.3070 to 1.3440 at 1.3255). Touching of 1.3253 cluster support, with short term rising channel (now at 1.3275) taken out too, will confirm this case. Further correction should be then seen towards 55 days EMA (now at 1.3196) before completion.

In the bigger picture, outlook remains unchanged as long as 1.3086 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2865 to 1.3440 at 1.3085) remains intact. EUR/USD is still trading comfortably within medium term rising channel (1.1639, 1.2483, 1.2978) and medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress. Such up trend is interpreted as having first move completed with three waves up to 1.2978, subsequent sideway consolidation completed at 1.2483. Rise from 1.2483 has made a top at 1.3364 but subsequent correction has completed with three waves down to 1.2865 already. The current rise from 1.2865 should represent resumption of this whole up trend and further rise is still in favor to retest 1.3668 (04 high).

However, sustained break of 1.3086 cluster support will indicate that the rally from 1.2865 has possibly completed and should turn focus back to the medium term rising channel (now at 1.2909). Sustained break of this channel will indicate that the whole medium term up trend from 1.1639 has completed and medium term outlook will then be turned bearish for 1.2483 support first.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9617; (P) 1.9669; (R1) 1.9702; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable remains bounded in tight range today. As discussed before, a short term top should be in place at 1.9824 already, with bearish bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Hence, as long as cable stays below 1.9724 resistance, further correction should be seen towards 1.9545 support. However, downside of the correction should be contained by 1.9434 cluster support (1.9183 to 1.9824 at 1.9428) and bring another rally.

On the upside, above 1.9724 resistance will indicate that the fall from 1.9824 has completed and should bring retest of this high. But firm break of 1.9824 is needed to confirm recent rally has resumed. Otherwise, consolidation will still extend further with risk of another fall before completion.

In the bigger picture, rise from 1.8090 is still in progress after corrective fall from 1.9913, which should have completed with three waves down to 1.9183, was supported by 1.9215/17 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.8517 to 1.9913 at 1.9215, 38.2% retracement of 1.8090 to 1.9913 at 1.9217). The rise from there should represent resumption the whole rally from 1.8090 and hence further upside is expected. However, with bearish divergence conditions being displayed in weekly RSI and daily MACD a medium term top could be around the corner. The up trend from 1.7047 could make a top after reaching 2.0046/0106 cluster resistance zone (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067, 61.8% projection of 1.8517 to 1.9913 from 1.9183 at 2.0046. And hence, focus will be on reversal signal as cable approaches these levels.

On the downside, below 1.9434 cluster support will dampen the above view and argue that the whole rise from 1.9183 has completed. Focus will then be turned back to 1.9215/17 cluster support and sustained break will indicate that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed earlier then we thought and should the bring deeper correction to 1.8517 support first.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2168; (P) 1.2198; (R1) 1.2248; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/CHF edges higher today but is still struggling at mentioned 1.2228/30 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2354 to 1.2029 at 1.2230, 38.2% retracement of 1.2550 to 1.2029 at 1.2228). As discussed before, price actions from 1.2029 will still be treated as sideway consolidation only as long as 1.2228/30 cluster resistance remains intact. Below 1.2211 minor support will turn intraday outlook consolidation and bring pull back. But break of 1.2082 support is needed to suggest that such consolidation has completed and bring retest of 1.2029 cluster support. Otherwise, consolidation could continue to extend.

On the upside, firm break of 1.2228/30 cluster resistance will indicate that price action from 1.2029 is developing into stronger rebound instead and further rise should then be seen towards next cluster resistance at (61.8% retracement of 1.2550 to 1.2029 at 1.2351).

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook remains bearish with USD/CHF staying below both 55 days EMA and 55 weeks EMA. Daily and weekly MACD is still staying negative, supporting this view too. The preferred interpretation at this point is that the whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in progress with the first move from 1.3283 finished with three waves down to 1.1919. Subsequent rebound to 1.2768 was the interim correction and price actions from there represent resumption of such down trend. Further decline should be seen to 1.1878 low and sustained break will add more credence to this view and bring further medium term weakness towards 100% projection of 1.3283 to 1.1919 from 1.2768 at 1.1404.

However, note that USD/CHF is still bounded in wide range of 1.1878 to 1.2768. A rebound to above 1.2354 resistance will dampen this view and indicate that the fall from 1.2571 has completed after meeting 1.2027 fibo support. Another rise could then be seen to retest this high and then the upper end of the range at 1.2768.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 118.83; (P) 119.09; (R1) 119.54; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY turns into sideway trading today as upside is still limited below 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13). At this point, further rise is still in favor as long as 118.46 support holds. Sustained break of 119.48 fibo resistance will indicate that stronger rebound is underway, probably with a retest of 122.17 high. On the downside, below 118.46 will turn intraday outlook consolidative first. But a break below 117.20 support is needed to signal the rise from 116.38 has completed. Otherwise short term bias remains on the upside.

In the bigger picture, our view remains unchanged. Previous break of medium term rising channel support (108.99, 114.41, 117.87) indicates the whole up trend from 108.99 has completed at 122.17. Weekly MACD’s stay below signal line is still supporting this. The corrective nature of the rise from 108.99 swings favors back to the case that such medium term rally is merely part of a large scale consolidation that started at 121.38, with first leg completed at 108.99 and second leg completed at 122.17. The fall from 121.17 should then the third leg of such consolidation and deeper decline should at least be seen to below 114.02/41 support zone (61.8% retracement of 108.99 to 122.17 at 114.02) first with much possibility of further fall to retest 108.99 low.

However, decisive break of 119.48 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 122.17 to 115.13) will argue that the price actions from 122.17 is developing into large range consolidation instead of correction to rise from 108.99. A retest of 122.17 high could be seen in such case. But still, firm break above this resistance is needed to confirm medium term rally from 108.99 has resumed. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best.

EUR/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.29; (P) 159.48; (R1) 159.71; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/JPY retreats mildly after rise from 155.34 has taken out 159.63 briefly, making new record high at 159.66. From a short term angle, rise from 155.34 should still be in force as long as 158.01 support holds. Further rally is still expected towards cluster projection target of 100% projection of 150.75 to 155.72 from 152.64 at 160.68 and 100% projection of 152.64 to 158.801 from 155.34 at 160.71. However, a break below 158.01 will suggest that the rise from 155.34 has possibly completed. More important, this will be the first warning that whole rally from 150.75 has ended after meeting 159.63 resistance. Focus, will then turn to short term rising channel (now at 157.56).

In the bigger picture, we’re treating the whole year long rise from 130.60 as resumption of the long term up trend with first wave ended at 143.60, subsequent correction ended at 137.167. The third wave up could have ended at 159.63 with a diagonal triangle already. Fall from 159.63 should represent the fourth wave correction and has already met it’s target of 38.2% retracement of 137.16 to 159.63 at 151.05) and lower channel line (143.60 to 159.63, 137.16). The current rise from 150.75 should represent the final rally in the whole move targeting upper boundary of the medium term channel (now at 161.51). Attention will be paid to reversal signal as EUR/JPY approaches this resistance.

On the downside, break of the short term rising channel will open up two short term bearish scenarios where the medium term top could be formed already or correction from 159.63 is not finished and is developing in to wide range consolidation instead. In either case, a retest of 150.75 low would likely be seen.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alh1B3aI8Bnc&refer=home

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=adazsvpN1ITI&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aNGpt19Qi0e0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aE3H6lQiY5xg&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876288095
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 09:39:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876284280
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 09:35:00 GMT from Kyodo

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876228976
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 08:39:00 GMT from Yahoo! Canada

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876225210
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 08:35:00 GMT from Bloomberg

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876181969
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 07:48:00 GMT from The Standard

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876180825
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 07:47:00 GMT from Philippine Daily Inquirer

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876180693
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 07:47:00 GMT from AP via MSN Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r876126150
Fri, 6 Apr 2007 06:38:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
05:00 JPY Japan Ecomomic watch DI Mar 50.8 N/A 49.2
JPY BOJ meeting Starts
Market holiday - Swiss Germany UK

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Watch today’s Markets Desk video.

The small-cap S&P 600 jumped 0.8%, catching up against the other major indexes after a poor start this morning. The Nasdaq and NYSE composites both advanced 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Dow’s gains stood at 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. Volume rose modestly across the board.

Merger talk made the advertisers group the star of the day, rising 6%. Internet software firms also did well, racking up 3%.

Mindray Medical International () soared 1.70 to 27.80 on 2 1/2-times average trade. The stock is building the right side of a cup base. A UBS analyst recently upgraded the Chinese maker of patient-monitoring systems to buy from neutral.

Oil & gas firms rallied after OPEC said on Thursday it would not increase output.

Oil field service provider Complete Production Services () gained 0.77 to 26.72 on above-average volume.

Offshore contract driller Transocean () rose 2.21 to 95.52, hitting a record high on heavy turnover.

Dresser-Rand Group (), a maker of equipment for the oil and gas industry, ticked up 0.55 to 33.46. It notched a record high in busy trade.

On the downside, CPFL Energia () gapped down, falling 1.68 to 56.37 on triple its usual turnover. The Brazilian electricity distributor hit an all-time high Thursday.

Ceradyne () sank 2.03 to 66.24, after hitting a record high on triple its regular volume. The maker of ceramic products for the defense and other industries saw its earnings and sales growth decelerate a bit in the most recent quarter.

Stocks Hold On To Most Gains

By JUAN CARLOS ARANCIBIA

Stock indexes came off session highs in late trading but remained moderately higher.

At 3 p.m. ET small caps led as the market with a 0.7% gain. The Nasdaq — helped by Internet and other rising technology stocks — was up 0.6%. The S&P 500 and Dow increased 0.4% while the NYSE composite rose 0.6%.

Volume was running 8% higher across the board. Gains on higher trading would be constructive action for the market.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to three-month highs, to 4.81%, as stock-market gains draw investors away from the bond market. Bond traders also grew discouraged by economic data that has lessened expectations of an interest-rate cut this year.

Chindex International () broke out of a cup-with-handle base. It rose 2.16 to 23 as it passed a 22.33 buy point. The distributor of medical equipment and products in China and Hong Kong formed a deep base, which may work against the stock’s progress.

Sun Hydraulics () rose 0.81 to 40.98 as it made another record high intraday.

ValueClick () was still up 2.04 to 29.92, though it had been up as much as 31.59 earlier. Microsoft’s buyout of aQuantive () fed speculation that ValueClick will be next on the buyout front. That overshadowed news of an FTC probe into certain ValueClick marketing practices.

SunPower () fell 1.62 to 53.01, nearing its 50-day moving average, as solar-power stocks weakened. First Solar () lost 1.02 to 64.15.

1 p.m. update: Major Indexes Advance In Moderate Trade

BY MARIE BEERENS

Major indexes crept higher in early afternoon trading. At 12:55 p.m. ET, the NYSE was up 0.7%, increasing its lead among the main indexes. The Dow and the S&P 500 rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq advanced 0.6%. Smaller stocks clearly lagged, with the small-cap S&P 600 up 0.1%.

Volume was moderately higher for both the NYSE and Nasdaq.

Advertising, Internet and discount retailer stocks were doing especially well. Gold stocks also advanced as precious metal prices were up a bit. The oil and gas sector also did well on continued strength in crude prices.

Transportation, machinery and real estate stocks fared the worst.

Priceline.com () gapped up, jumping 3.16, or 6%, to 60.50, successfully rebounding off its 50-day moving average on quadruple its normal trade. A Citigroup analyst raised the online name-your-own-price travel agent’s rating to buy from hold, citing valuation and its growth strategy.

Stifel Nicolaus also raised its rating to buy from hold on Thursday.

Shanda Interactive Entertainment () rose 1.15 to 27.90, hitting a 52-week high on triple its usual turnover. The Chinese firm provides Internet gaming, entertainment and educational services.

Buffalo Wild Wings () gapped up, surging 3.38 to 82.55, hitting a record high on 2 1/2-times average volume. The operator of casual restaurants said Friday it plans to buy nine franchised restaurants in the Las Vegas area. It also declared a 2-for-1 stock split.

On the downside, fertilizer maker Terra Nitrogen () plunged 3.71 to 84.79 on seven times its regular trade. The stock’s been trading wildly recently after hitting an all-time high. It could be climaxing.

Diana Shipping () fell 0.78 to 21.42 on more than double its normal volume.

11:00 a.m. ET update

By IBD Staff

The market digested merger news and rising gasoline and oil prices, as the major indexes trended higher early Friday.

At 10:50 a.m. ET, the NYSE composite was up 0.5%. The Dow and the S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The Nasdaq added 0.3%.

An announced interest rate hike and reserve requirement increase by China’s central bank drove the Shanghai composite down 0.5%. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.6%, while London’s FTSE 100 chalked up a 1.2% gain.

Private equity investor Blackstone Group announced Thursday it would acquire credit card processor Alliance Data Systems () for 81.75 a share, about $6.4 billion. Alliance shares jumped 15.50 to 78.38 Thursday, but remained flat Friday morning.

Aquantive () gapped up and blasted 27.73 to 63.60 after Microsoft () said it would buy the online advertising firm for 65.50 a shareabout $6 billion in cash. This came just one day after London’s WPP Group () agreed to buy 24/7 Real Media ().

ValueClick () gapped up, vaulting 3.19, or 11% to 31.08. The online advertising firm disclosed a probe by the Federal Trade Commission over its lead generation activities. Needham & Co. cut the stock to hold from buy.

Focus Media Holdings () headed higher for the ninth straight session. Shares gapped up 1.87 to 41.70. Late Thursday, the Chinese advertising firm said Q1 earnings rose 62% to 21 cents a share, 2 cents above views. Sales climbed 75% to $58.1 million. Profit and revenue grown had been in triple-digit-plus territory for many prior quarters.

Few leading stocks saw significant slips in early trading.

One exception, Hurco Companies (), gapped down and lost 5.66 to 41.46. The maker of automated controls for the metal processing industry announced Q2 earnings and sales growth slowed significantly. The heavy-volume move ended the stock’s bid to break out of a six-week consolidation, and left it well below its 10-week moving average line.

Several China-based stocks also slipped following news of the country’s central bank interest rate. Suntech Power Holdings () gapped down, losing 1.78 to 34.10. Guangshen Railway () lost 1.34 to 41.20. China Petroleum & Chemical () sank 54 cents to 104.40. But Ctrip.com (), which gapped out of a base Thursday, added 47 cents to 78.54 in fast trade.