Forex Investment

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

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http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a2kQklPosoyg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aKxtoUyDZwQk&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a2kQklPosoyg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aKxtoUyDZwQk&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a2kQklPosoyg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aKxtoUyDZwQk&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a2kQklPosoyg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aKxtoUyDZwQk&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a2kQklPosoyg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aKxtoUyDZwQk&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex News Digest

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aU0jgFPzmddE&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aeeJMh2xV.T0&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a2kQklPosoyg&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aHJpfwdwewLc&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aKxtoUyDZwQk&refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=aK9VDZtUH72U&refer=currency

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820055298
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 04:18:00 GMT from The Australian

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r820014663
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 03:35:00 GMT from Canoe Money

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819936174
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 02:15:00 GMT from Business Times Singapore

http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r819871821
Fri, 23 Feb 2007 01:24:00 GMT from Reuters

http://www.actionforex.com/latest_news/latest_news/forex_news_20060323537/ Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan All industry index Dec 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%
23:50 JPY Japan CSPI Jan 0.60% 0.20% 0.20%
9:00 EUR Germany Ifo index Feb 107.5 107.9
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Q/Q Q4 0.80% 0.80%
9:30 GBP U.K. GDP Y/Y Q4 3.00% 3.00%

http://www.actionforex.com/general_information/forex_newsletters/forex_newsletter_200507301487/

Action Insight | Written by ActionForex.com | Feb 23 07 07:04 GMT |
Forex Daily Technical Report EUR/JPY Momentum Continues, German Ifo Watched

Euro’s momentum against yen continued ahead of Germany’s Ifo business climate index and reached new record high of 159.61 yesterday. After hitting a 16 year high of 108.7 in Dec, the Ifo index retreated mildly to 107.9 in Jan. It is believed that even though the index is expected to correct mildly further, it will remain at an healthy level of 107.5. However, with softer domestic demand and the implementation of the VAT, risk should be more on the downside for the reading in Feb.

On the other hand, even though dollar remains firm against the Japanese yen, it was pressured against European currencies on geopolitical risks. The UN’s International Atomic and Energy Agency announced yesterday that Iran has not only failed to suspend all nuclear activities by yesterday’s deadline, but has set up over 300 centrifuges for industrial enrichment. Meanwhile, Iranian nuclear official claimed the suspension of uranium enrichment was unacceptable and against its sovereign rights. Dollar was sent lower after this news and erased most of the earlier gains against Euro and Swiss Franc.

Technically speaking, it’s still a bit too early to conclude whether dollar’s recovery against Euro and Swiss Franc has completed yesterday as near term resistance still holds. However, in case of a better than expected Germany Ifo today, EUR/USD will likely be propelled through the near term structure resistance and in such case, could trigger further rally to make new high for the week before ending. EUR/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3090; (P) 1.3117; (R1) 1.3152; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

EUR/USD recovered impressive after retreat from 1.3187 was contained at 1.3079. While intraday outlook is turned consolidative by the recovery, downside risk remains since mentioned 1.3142 minor resistance still holds. EUR/USD could still have dip to below 1.3079 before completing the consolidation from 1.3187. But still, we’d expect downside to be contained by 1.3034 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2939 to 1.3187 at 1.3034) and bring rally resumption.

On the upside, 1.3142 will indicate the correction from 1.3187 has likely completed and should bring retest of 1.3187 high. Sustained break of 1.3187 high and 1.3173 fibo resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.3364 to 1.2865 at 1.3173) will indicate the current rally has resumed for 1.3296 resistance first.

In the bigger picture, decisive break of 1.3052/57 cluster resistance indicates that the whole decline from 1.3364 has already completed at 1.2865. It also saved the case that medium term up trend from 1.1639 is still in progress with EUR/USD kept inside the rising channel (lower channel at 1.2817 now). Break of 1.3296 resistance will suggest the rise from 1.2483 has resumed and EUR/USD could make a new high above 1.3364 before finally making a medium term top

However, with bearish divergence condition in weekly MACD and RSI, upside of the current rise could be limited by resistance zone of 1.3668 (04 high) and 100% projection of 1.1639 to 1.2978 from 1.2483 at 1.3822. Firm break below 1.3034 cluster support will argue that the whole rebound from 1.2865 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break below 1.2865 again will confirm that the whole fall from 1.3364 has resumed. In such case, focus will then be switched back to 1.2760 support and 1.2483 cluster support (50% retracement of 1.1639 to 1.3364 at 1.2502) again.

GBP/USD

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.9482; (P) 1.9540; (R1) 1.9619; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

Cable continue to engage in choppy sideway trading inside established range. As discussed before, previous break of rising trend line support (1.8517 to 1.8834) indicates the rally from 1.8517 should have already completed at 1.9913. Therefore, as long as cable stays below 1.9731 resistance, the fall from 1.9913 could still extend further. However, a break of 1.9429 support is needed to indicate fall from 1.9679 has resumed first. Otherwise, choppy consolidation could still continue. Break of 1.9400 will will encourage further decline towards 1.9237/61 cluster support (23.6% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.9237).

In the bigger picture, bearish divergence conditions are being displayed in weekly RSI, daily MACD and RSI already, suggesting that the whole up trend from 1.7047 might have completed before reaching mentioned 2.0106 cluster resistance (1992 high, 100% projection of 17047 to 1.9024 from 1.8090 at 2.0067). Focus is still on 1.9237/61 cluster support. Decisive break of 1.9237/61 cluster support will add much weight to the case that whole medium term up trend from 1.7047 has already completed much deeper decline should be seen towards next cluster support at 1.8834 (38.2% retracement of 1.7047 to 1.9913 at 1.8818) first.

However, strong rebound from 1.9237/61 cluster support or break of 1.9731 resistance will indicate that the current fall from 1.9913 is merely correction to the rise from 1.8517 only and cable could make another high above 1.9913 and attempt to meeting 2.0106 cluster resistance before having a medium term reversal.

USD/CHF

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2354; (P) 1.2395; (R1) 1.2418; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/.

USD/CHF’s rebound from 1.2309 was limited at 1.2436 and retreated sharply since then. However, similar to EUR/USD, as downside is still contained by 1.2371 minor support, upside risk remains and another rise to above 1.2436 cannot be ruled out. But still, previous break of 1.2374 support should have completed a head and shoulder top formation (with ls: 1.2547, h: 1.2571, rs: 1.2550) and should be an important indication of reversal. Hence, break of 1.2475 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 1.2571 to 1.2309 at 1.2471) is needed to reinitiate short term bullishness. Otherwise, further decline is still in favor after the current rebound. Below 1.2371 will suggest that rebound from 1.2309 has completed and bring retest of this low. Break will encourage further fall towards 1.2268 support.

In the bigger picture, the major question is whether whole medium term down trend form 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Focus is on mentioned medium term falling trend line (1.3283 to 1.2760, now at 1.2497) and 1.2268 support. On the downside, sustained break of 1.2268 resistance turned support will confirm that the whole rally from 1.1878 has completed after failing to break through mentioned medium term falling trend line. Also, weekly MACD will still be kept negative with daily MACD staying below signal line. This will favors the case that whole down trend from 1.3283 is still in force. In such case, deeper decline should be seen towards 1.2211 support and even further to retest 1.1878 low.

On the upside, sustained break of this medium term falling trend line will indicate that whole medium term down trend from 1.3283 has already completed at 1.1878. Further rally should then be seen towards 1.2768 cluster resistance(61.8% retracement of 1.3283 to 1.1878 at 1.2746) first. Break of 1.2768 cluster resistance will add much weight to the case that whole corrective rise from 1.1288 (04 low) has resumed and further rally should be seen towards 1.3283 (06 high) or above.

USD/JPY

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.05; (P) 121.34; (R1) 121.87; http://www.actionforex.com/forex_analysis_and_forecasts/pivot_points/pivot_points_summary_200603205734/

USD/JPY remains strong as rise from 118.97 extends further to 121.61 At this point, intraday bias remains on the upside as long as USD/JPY stays above 121.17 minor support and further rally is expected to follow to retest 122.17 high. Below 121.17 will indicate a temporary top is formed and risk pull back towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 120.59). But downside should be contained above 120.18 support and bring rally resumption.

In the bigger picture, with medium term up trend from 108.99 remains in force, favor is still on the case that rise from 108.99 represents resumption of long term up trend from 101.66. The preferred interpretation of the rise from 108.99 is that the first move has completed at 117.87. Subsequent price actions to 113.95, 119.86 and 114.41 is treated as interim consolidation that’s skewed upward by the rise to 119.86. Rise from 114.41 is treated as resumption of the whole up trend. With this interpretation, next upside target will be 100% projection of 108.99 to 117.87 from 114.41 at 123.29.

However, decisive break of 117.96 support will rise some doubt about this interpretation In such case, a deeper decline should follow to retest medium term rising channel (now at 116.67) first. A break of this channel will swing favors back to the case that another medium term decline should be seen towards 108.99 low before completing the whole long term consolidation that started at 121.38.

Forex